Toyota aims to sell 600,000 hybrids

Toyota aims to sell 600,000 hybrids

TRAVERSE CITY, Mich. - Toyota’s bold prediction that it would sell 600,000 hybrid vehicles annually in the United States by early next decade has been met with a collective "We’ll see how it goes" from the rest of the industry.
In a forum on future engines at an industry conference here Friday, the Big Three domestic automakers and Honda took the road of caution.

Honda sells hybrids now, and the others plan to roll out gas/electric models over the next few years, but none would venture a sales projection.

Ford says it will add three models by 2008, giving it five, and will have its second generation of the technology on the road by then.

"That won’t be our last (hybrid model)," said Mary Ann Wright, director of Ford’s fuel-cell program. "But we’re not in a race with Toyota."

Even Honda, the first to offer a hybrid in the United States with the 2000 Insight, has not projected beyond the 50,000 hybrids it expects to sell this year because of uncertainty over demand.

"We have to see what the market is, so we really take it one step at a time," said John German, American Honda’s manager of environmental and energy analyses.

Besides the Insight, Honda has hybrid versions of the Accord and Civic but hasn’t announced others. "We literally haven’t made up our minds about what our next hybrid will be," German said.

What does Toyota see the other don’t? For one, it has received a public edict from the top. Toyota Motor Corp. President Katsuaki Watanabe recently set a goal of selling 1 million hybrids globally by early next decade, with 600,000 expected to be sold in the United States, its largest market.

Hybrid vehicles are powered by gasoline and electricity; the engine switches between the two, thus improving mileage and reducing emissions.

Toyota announced Wednesday that it will introduce 10 hybrids over the next six or seven years.

"We’ll be in all segments" to reach the 600,000-vehicle goal, about 25 percent of Toyota’s expected sales volume, said Dave Hermance, Toyota’s executive environmental engineer.

J.D. Power and Associates is not so sure. The research organization sees hybrid sales industrywide leveling off at around 650,000 vehicles per year by 2012.

The reason? Cost, says Anthony Pratt, J.D. Power’s senior manager of global powertrain research.

Power says the gas/electrics cost more, about $2,300 to $11,000 more than gasoline-powered cars. Moreover, the Big Three and Honda are exploring more efficient gas engines, diesels and even natural gas vehicles that will be alternatives by then.

But costs are coming down as Toyota gains experience with the technology, said Hermanson, who insists that talk that Toyota sells its hybrids at a loss is inaccurate.

Hermance also says the electric motors, software and batteries it develops for hybrids can transfer to hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles, which are considered the vehicle of the future.

Ford has said it will limit sales of its hybrid models to about 20,000 this year partly because it can’t get more batteries and other components. Hermance says that is not an issue for Toyota, which develops the hardware and software in-house and gets its batteries from a joint venture with Panasonic.

Though the other manufacturers are cautious about hybrids, they aren’t blind to their possibilities. They are designing vehicles so they can easily add the necessary hardware, particularly the bulky battery packs, if demand warrants.

Ford, for example, had to sacrifice some luggage space in converting the Escape sport-utility to a hybrid model, and the Honda Accord Hybrid gave up its spare tire. The automakers, including GM and Chrysler, don’t want such tradeoffs.

Wright said future Fords would be better able to integrate hybrid systems.

General Motors will introduce versions of the Saturn Vue SUV and Chevrolet Malibu sedan with limited hybrid systems over the next two years and full hybrid versions of the Chevrolet Tahoe and GMC Yukon in late 2007. The Chrysler Group is collaborating with GM and will use its system in the Dodge Durango in 2008.

GM and Chrysler say they are putting full hybrid systems on vehicles where they save the most fuel.

Pratt says it’s hard to predict whether buyers will pay the additional cost on a large SUV, a vehicle most buyers choose because of hauling or towing capability. "That remains to be seen. People tend to buy a vehicle that suits their lifestyle and shop within that segment," he said. "They’re going into uncharted waters with those vehicles."

http://www.seacoastonline.com/news/08062005/biz_nati/56588.htm

i don't doubt Toyota at all. they can pull off anything they want to at any time.since they work with all classes of income and can accomidate to them.

if gas prices keeps going and going up. then some might consider buy a hydrid.
mo monay for toyota...

I don't think it could be too unrealistic. A lot of economic variables will have to fall into place for them at the right time, but as AE102 said, with the rise of gas pirces, sure.
I hope they keep them looking normal though. There was another related article on here earlier saying something that customers want more visability in their hybrids now, which contradicts what they wanted earlier.

yeah thats true. the nwere ones should be better designed (ergonomically) but the futuristic design is something i am afraid to even think of, hehe.

i want some looks to teh hybrid. somethin thats not fugly..you know? lol.